THE FIX

Obama's Late V.P. Date: Pros and Cons
With Barack Obama's schedule now public through tomorrow night -- he spends the next 48 hours on a bus tour through Virginia -- it seems increasingly likely that the announcement of his vice presidential pick will come Friday or even Saturday.

Such a late pick, coming 72 hours or less before the opening of the Democratic National Convention in Denver, carries both potential risks and rewards for the Obama campaign.

The Fix interviewed a handful of top strategists from each party and asked them to outline the pros and cons of such a late choice by Obama. A sampling of their best ideas are below. Have some of your own? The comments section is open for business.

PROS

• Media Domination: Speculation about who the pick will be has dominated news coverage this week. By holding off on the announcement until late this week (or even this weekend), Obama ensures wall-to-wall coverage over the weekend and in the direct run-up to the start of the convention. As Chris Cooper, a Democratic direct mail consultant put it: "They have definitely squeezed this decision for all the earned media value it is worth, and with no leaks, they are in total control. Brilliant."

• Leak Proof: The ability to control a campaign's day-to-day messaging is a critical part of any successful bid. And, the only way you can ensure message control is to keep leaks to a minimum. Obama's campaign prides itself on the code of silence among its top strategists and, so far at least, the lack of major leaks about the veep deliberations has been impressive. With almost no new information about the pick coming out of the Obama campaign, the focus of the veepstakes coverage has been on the relative strengths and weaknesses of each of the serious candidates. That focus works in Obama's favor, according to a Democratic strategist granted anonymity to speak freely. "The debate is not on Obama's experience (or lack thereof) but on the merits of the most highly qualified VP selections," the source said.

• Limit V.P. Exposure: If the pick comes either Friday or Saturday and is followed -- as expected -- by a swing state tour featuring Obama and the vice presidential nominee, there will be a VERY limited window in which the veep will be on his (or her) own. That means a very short period of time in which the vice presidential nominee can screw up or take the ticket off message. And, even if the veep pick does make a misstep, it is much more likely to be diluted or even missed entirely among the crush of convention coverage.

• Convention/Post-Convention on Steroids: Announcing his vice presidential pick so soon before the start of the convention, makes the four days in Denver feel all that much more special. (To the Fix's mind, it's like living separately when you are engaged and then moving in together when you are married. Just adds a little special something.) And, when the inevitable bus/boat/airplane tour comes post-convention, there will be more excitement surrounding it with a freshly minted vice president by Obama's side.

CONS

• The Clinton Conundrum: While most political insiders have long considered Hillary Rodham Clinton a long shot -- at best -- to be Obama's vice presidential pick, many of the most ardent supporters of the New York senator are still holding out hope that she will be the pick. Assuming she's not (and it seems a pretty safe assumption at this point), there will be real unhappiness in some circles about Clinton being passed over; that discontent isn't likely to resolve itself in the 48 or even 72 hours between when the pick is announced and when the convention starts, a reality that could lead to more public division at the convention than party bigwigs would like.

• Lost Swing State Opportunity: Vice presidential nominees are, in the words of one Democratic operative, "force multipliers." That is, according to the source: "Candidate visits have more impact than spending the equivalent on television ads in a given market so every day [Obama] waits means four media markets that don't get a visit that day." That point is especially true given Obama's pledge to expand the traditional presidential playing field into states like South Dakota, Kansas and Alaska. A single visit to any of those states by a vice presidential candidate would draw HUGE coverage locally as none of them have seen a member of the national ticket in any election in modern political history. Could the veep pick make a quick stop in them some time in September or October? Of course. But, every day post Labor Day is precious and the campaign may not want to "waste" one in a state that is considered a longshot.

• Momentum Changer: The storyline in the campaign over the last month has been the alleged comeback of McCain with polls -- including a new one by the Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg -- showing the race narrowing. Obama and his team have clearly been playing defense of late -- a position that could have been remedied by an earlier veep selection. "[Obama's] been getting killed the last 2-3 weeks, his numbers have dropped and he really could have used a veep nominee to fight back as only a good veep nominee can," said one prominent Republican strategist. Not only would an earlier vice presidential pick allowed Obama to, in essence, double team McCain but it would also have let the Illinois Senator play the good cop while his vice presidential pick adopted the bad cop/attack dog role against McCain.

Posted by Chris Cillizza | Permalink | Comments (24)
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